RELATIONSHIP OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITH MAJOR CROPS PRODUCTION IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN

Abstract

This study investigated crop-climate relationship, using yield statistics for major crops (wheat, rice) and climatic elements (rainfall, temperature) in the Punjab province, Pakistan for the period of 1981-2016. The influences of rainfall and temperature on major crops were more realistic using de trended yield data which ignored the technological effects. This study also examined crop-climate relationship during various phonological stages of wheat and rice crops. Correlation analysis reveals the influence of rainfall and temperatures on crop production. Rainfall and temperature are significantly correlated with wheat production during the stage of germination and early tilling in the month of December. Whereas, a significant negative relationship of temperature and wheat crop detected during flowering and on these stages in the month of March. Further, results indicate that rainfall has significant positive relation with rice production during the plantation stage in the month of June, however temperature has a significant negative relationship with rice crop during the same stage of plantation. This study emphasizing the combined effect of rainfall and temperature and their interactions to annual yield variation were substantial consequences for food related issues across Punjab province of Pakistan. Significant relations illustrate that the productivity of wheat and rice crop is mostly influenced by variability in local climate. This analysis ia a particular argument of the assessment of climate variability and its effect on domestic crop yield with better understanding of crop-climate relationship. The findings of this research are useful to determining the practices to enhance the sustainable crop yield through better agronomic methods.