TRENDS AND VARIABILITY OF TEMPERATURE TIME SERIES OVER THE KANSHI CATCHMENT IN THE POTOHAR REGION OF PUNJAB-PAKISTAN

Abstract

The variabilities and changing trends of temperature in the Potohar region have been examined in this study for the period of 1950-2018. Monthly data of mean, maximum and minimum temperature were acquired from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and slope method was opted to calculate the variation rate of temperature for the period under investigation. The results of the study revealed the rising trend of temperature over the Kanshi catchment in northern Punjab, for the period under study. Trends of maximum temperature significantly increased to a rate of 0.0134 °C/ year, while minimum temperature was also found to have increased at the rate of 0.0334 °C / year. Such high rate of temperacture increase can be attributed to settlement expansion an outcome of rapid urbanization, in Jhelum city. In comparison to maximum temperature (Tmax), the rate of increase of minimum temperature was identified to be more rapid. Correspondingly, a sum of 1 to 2°C increase in minimum temperature was observed, in the study area, for the period under study. The identified temperature changes are anticipated to have adverse consequences particularly for the agriculture and livestock sectors and food security in the region.