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http://digitalrepository.fccollege.edu.pk/handle/123456789/993
Title: | Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics |
Authors: | Goldsteina, Joshua R. Lee, Ronald D. |
Keywords: | Sociology |
Issue Date: | 8-Sep-2020 |
Publisher: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Citation: | Goldstein, J. R., & Lee, R. D. (2020). Demographic Perspectives on Mortality of Covid-19 and Other Epidemics (No. w27043). National Bureau of Economic Research. |
Abstract: | To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 2.94 y) and remaining life years (11.7 y per death). Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality in other countries are quite similar and increase at rates close to each country’s rate for all-cause mortality. The scenario of 1 million COVID-19 deaths is similar in scale to that of the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than that of the Spanish flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the COVID-19 deaths are concentrated in a period of months rather than spread out over decades. |
URI: | http://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/993 |
Appears in Collections: | Population (Age Bracket) |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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Demographic perspectives on the mortality of.pdf | 1.23 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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